Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 5.034731 5.917035 6.892184 8.047612 9.376910 10.855884 12.623535
2025-07-27 3.819016 5.046910 6.550363 8.515542 11.004100 14.036975 17.998104
2025-08-03 2.905727 4.248085 6.041460 8.586410 12.073729 16.648760 23.061590
2025-08-10 2.196460 3.513805 5.414628 8.312037 12.560140 18.491308 27.310346
2025-08-17 1.672195 2.904994 4.812484 7.912318 12.737107 19.849770 30.978663
2025-08-24 1.350401 2.527177 4.465404 7.798744 13.265314 21.712182 35.519166
2025-08-31 1.113479 2.233324 4.187421 7.726697 13.812103 23.620211 40.287907
2025-09-07 0.985503 2.102509 4.153762 8.041463 15.006072 26.646265 47.096057
2025-09-14 0.845134 1.916542 3.985234 8.083064 15.720896 28.938191 52.905589
2025-09-21 0.728033 1.750997 3.823220 8.103745 16.385327 31.190249 58.837960
2025-09-28 0.630328 1.604775 3.671858 8.115854 17.022605 33.439264 64.951568
2025-10-05 0.609552 1.625553 3.862807 8.829796 19.069536 38.407012 76.341896
2025-10-12 0.551988 1.551540 3.847243 9.130859 20.370727 42.175214 85.987193
2025-10-19 0.504204 1.491891 3.854932 9.485500 21.828846 46.394581 96.888570
2025-10-26 0.440918 1.377877 3.718470 9.502386 22.585603 49.324132 105.588340
2025-11-02 0.368582 1.221321 3.451800 9.180006 22.570842 50.707166 111.373653
2025-11-09 0.302438 1.064579 3.154229 8.734954 22.221725 51.358645 115.730593
2025-11-16 0.260636 0.969441 2.997570 8.608027 22.575084 53.504284 123.322953
2025-11-23 0.226743 0.890004 2.867965 8.528252 23.025319 55.892163 131.614964
2025-11-30 0.211627 0.869088 2.898639 8.872218 24.534526 60.735864 145.546528
2025-12-07 0.188843 0.815175 2.823242 8.917587 25.307918 63.990693 156.259265
2025-12-14 0.168232 0.763278 2.744063 8.940156 26.024892 67.176612 167.067570
2025-12-21 0.149909 0.714686 2.665847 8.953382 26.718140 70.365180 178.128063